In twenty years there will be fewer cars in use than there are today.

At first I want to split my argumentation in two parts by first looking on emerging and developing countries and thereafter on industrial countries. For emerging and developing countries are nowadays in the position that industrial countries have been in the middle of the last century. So it is reasonable to take the developement of cars in industrial countries in the 20th century as an indicator how car usage will develop in other parts of the world in the next 20 years. As of my experience the number of cars in industrial countries has increased a lot during the last decades since most people are able to afford one or even several cars. For most people in emerging or developing countries this is not affordable yet and the ownership of a car is a priviledge to the wealthier. With the increasing wealth in those countries I think most people will own a car in the next 20 years. In industrial countries however I predict that the number of cars will be reduced in the next 20 year. This is because I think that more and more people will move to cities where due to public transportation a car is no longer necessary. instead car sharing will be a good alternative for most people. How much cars are used in 20 years strongly depends on how environmentally friendly they will be by then and how far automated driving will be developed. If it is possible to use a car without having a bad conscience and the time in the car can be used for other things than driving, then I think the effects of urbanization and public transportation on the other side will cancel each other out. Being myself from Germany, the country which loves cars, I can even here feel that people are willing to change to other means of transport if it is cheaper than using a car and the connections are not severly limiting your flexibilty. Speaking for myself I think that I will never own my car since in cities like Munich or Stuttgart this is no necessity. Taking into account that the population in most industrial countries is decreasing while it is increasing in most poorer countries, I overally disagree with the given statement. Especially considering that 20 year is not such a long time period I think in industrial countries there hardly will be any change regarding this topic while in faster developing countries an increased ownership of cars will be noticed.
Submitted by NotImportant on
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